Nairobi: Kajiado County is expected to receive above-average rainfall during the October-November-December (OND) 2026 short rains season, the County Meteorological Office has said. County Director of Meteorological Services Benson Lubang’a Ogada noted that the rains are set to become consistent during the third to fourth week of October and may continue into January 2027.
According to Kenya News Agency, Ogada stated that the forecast was developed through a Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) process, which integrated the national Kenya Meteorological Service forecast, localized climate analysis, and Indigenous, Traditional, and Community Knowledge. The anticipated enhanced rainfall is primarily attributed to the strengthening El Ni±o event and the expected development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Other climate systems, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclones, may also influence the intensity and distribution of rainfall.
Ogada explained that the rainfall distribution is expected to be generally fair to good in both time and space, though there may be episodes of heavy rainfall and dry spells. Warmer-than-average temperatures are also anticipated across the county during this period.
The expected rains are likely to improve water availability, pasture regeneration, and agricultural production, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions of the county. However, Ogada cautioned residents to prepare for possible risks associated with heavy rainfall, such as flash floods, waterlogging, soil erosion, and damage to infrastructure. He also warned of an increased prevalence of water- and vector-borne diseases.
Residents, farmers, and pastoralists are advised to prepare early by harvesting and storing water, implementing measures to mitigate flooding, and adhering to official weather advisories issued regularly. County departments and other stakeholders are encouraged to incorporate the forecast into their planning and preparedness strategies.
Ogada emphasized the importance of taking advantage of the expected favorable rainfall while remaining vigilant to extreme weather events. ‘Kajiado should prepare for a wetter-than-normal OND 2026 season while remaining alert to heavy rainfall events, dry spells, and warmer temperatures,’ he said.
The scientific forecast is supported by Maasai elders and traditional weather experts who have conducted traditional observations. Moses Ole Nkinaai, a traditional weather expert, pointed to indicators such as the alignment of slaughtered sheep’s intestines, flowering of indigenous trees, and changes in animal behavior as signs of the impending heavy rains. ‘According to the alignment of the sheep’s intestines, the county will receive above-average rainfall. Indigenous trees such as Acacia, oltepesi, and olng’arooji have also started flowering, while the movement of birds and ants and the behavior of livestock all depict that there will be heavy rains in the next few weeks,’ Ole Nkinaai said.
