Kenya: Kenya has intensified preparedness measures for the anticipated El Ni±o weather conditions, with the Government calling for stronger early warning systems and last-mile dissemination of crucial information to protect lives, livelihoods, and critical infrastructure. Cabinet Secretary for Environment, Forestry and Climate Change, Dr. Nancy Barasa, announced a shift from a technical approach to a people-centered weather forecasting system to ensure communities can translate forecasts into practical actions.
According to Kenya News Agency, Dr. Barasa emphasized the importance of ensuring that accurate, timely, and science-driven forecasts reach farmers, pastoralists, fishermen, aviation operators, and other communities who depend on weather information to make critical decisions. “It is not enough for the focus to remain on the websites or computers. It has to reach the farmer to know what plants should be planted,” she stated.
The Cabinet Secretary highlighted that meteorological information is vital for sectors such as health, transport, education, agriculture, and the blue economy. She stressed the need for stronger coordination between the Kenya Meteorological Service Agency (KMSA) and Government ministries to contextualize forecasts for different sectors.
Dr. Barasa also discussed the government’s preparedness for the upcoming El Ni±o rains at the Kenya Meteorological Department Headquarters. She announced the development of priority regulations to strengthen the legal and institutional framework governing meteorological services, building on existing constitutional and legislative provisions. KMSA aims to become a world-class institution driven by science and innovation, focusing on accuracy, timeliness, accessibility, and actionable information to enhance climate resilience.
The Government plans to improve last-mile delivery of weather information through county structures, village elders, and community engagement forums. Capacity-building programs will be undertaken to ensure communities understand weather warnings and prepare appropriately for extreme weather events. Village elders will play a crucial role in identifying vulnerable areas and mobilizing communities to respond to early warnings.
Dr. Barasa warned that the anticipated El Ni±o conditions could lead to various natural disasters, including riverine and flash floods, urban flooding, landslides, and strong winds. She called for a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach to mitigate the effects, emphasizing that preparedness is critical in protecting lives and livelihoods.
The Ministry is working with several government agencies under a coordinated approach to shield Kenyans from the effects of extreme weather. Efforts are being made to strengthen quality control and international standards in meteorological services, including working towards ISO accreditation to ensure that Kenya’s meteorological information meets international standards.
Stakeholders have developed a 100-day action plan focusing on various aspects, including legal and institutional frameworks, staffing, infrastructure, and early warning systems. Dr. Barasa linked improved weather forecasting to Kenya’s broader development agenda, including food and water security, renewable energy, and climate resilience.
Kenya has made significant progress in digitizing meteorological data and integrating its systems with regional and global platforms under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The country’s meteorological data is crucial for regional and global operations, including the aviation industry.
Edward Maina Muriuki, Acting Director of Meteorological Services at the Kenya Meteorological Department, stated that scientific evidence indicates the El Ni±o signal is firmly established and continues to intensify. WMO forecasts show a near 100 percent likelihood that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027, with exceptionally warm tropical Pacific Ocean conditions supporting further intensification.
Muriuki cautioned against assuming that the current event would produce rainfall patterns similar to those experienced during the 1997-1998 El Ni±o. He noted that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, unlike the strong positive IOD during the 1997-1998 event.
Seasonal forecasts suggest most parts of the country will likely receive above-normal rainfall, defined as more than 125 percent of the seasonal average. Mean temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average, particularly in coastal and certain inland counties.
The department has transitioned from knowledge-based forecasting to impact-based forecasting, focusing on the potential effects of weather conditions rather than just predicting the weather itself.
