Nyeri: Nyeri is among the counties expected to start receiving short rains during the second and third weeks of October. According to Kenya News Agency, a climate outlook report by the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) released on August 26 has listed Nyeri among 20 other counties expected to experience the short rains in early October.
Other counties set to receive the October-November-December rains from the second and third weeks of October include Nyandarua, Murang’a, Meru, Nairobi, Kwale, Kilifi, Mandera, Garissa, and Isiolo. The short rains, traditionally occurring between October and December, are anticipated to extend to early January next year, as per KMSA.
Counties such as Machakos, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Samburu, and Makueni will begin to receive rains between the third and fourth weeks of October. However, the rains are expected to cease by early December. Meanwhile, areas like Nandi, Kakamega, Siaya, Nakuru, Kisii, Kericho, Homa Bay, and Narok are slated to start receiving the OND rains from September.
The rainfall distribution is predicted to range from fair to good, except for Turkana and Samburu, which are expected to experience poor to fair distribution. The season will be marked by prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms in several parts of the country. In terms of intensity, Turkana, Samburu, Marsabit, and parts of West Pokot are forecasted to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.
Most regions are expected to experience above-average rainfall, influenced by the anticipated El Nino event. This phenomenon is expected to significantly affect the intensity of rain recorded in many counties. The seasonal climate outlook, signed by KMSA acting Director General Charles Mugah, indicates that the short rains will have both adverse and positive impacts across various sectors.
Nyeri County Director of Meteorological Services, Peter Wambugu, has clarified that the official El Nino weather outlook will be released on Friday. He stated that they are awaiting a global weather analysis on this phenomenon, often marked by heavy rains and floods, before disseminating the information to stakeholders and the general public.
In a press statement released on July 3, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that El Nino conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen rapidly, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other extreme events in many parts of the world. El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern typically associated with increased heat worldwide, as well as drought in some areas and heavy rains in others. It occurs on average every two to seven years and lasts between nine and twelve months.
Kenya experienced notable El Nino events in 1997, 2006, 2015, and 2019. The 1997 El Nino rains were particularly intense due to a high positive El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index. However, a subsequent El Nino in 2015, despite a higher index, led to less significant effects than anticipated.
