Top US spy agencies have expressed concerns over the political uncertainty around the Aug 9 General Election in Kenya, warning that any disruptions in East Africa’s largest economy will not be healthy for regional stability.
Kenya, which is a strategic ally of the US in the Horn of Africa, faces another test of stability in a hotly contested presidential election at a time it has emerged as a player in brokering peace in conflicts in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Deputy President William Ruto and ODM party leader Raila Odinga are the leading hopefuls to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta, who will leave the office at the end of constitutional two terms.
Kenyatta has embarked on an aggressive campaign for the veteran opposition leader Odinga against his renegade deputy, who has been campaigning for close to five years to succeed his boss.
Now, a new report by the heads of US intelligence agencies — who include Avril Haines (director of national intelligence), CIA chief William Burns, General Paul Nakasone (head of the National Security Agency) and FBI Director Christopher Wray — says the US is concerned that Kenya’s pivotal role as a regional peace broker could be compromised by domestic distractions related to this year’s election.
The annual report titled Worldwide Threat Assessment represents a consensus among the 17 intelligence agencies of major threats confronting the US, and is used by law and policymakers for critical decisions and crafting budgets.
“East Africa probably will see new bouts of conflict in the coming year as the region becomes increasingly strained by the civil war in Ethiopia, power struggles within the transitional government in Sudan, continued instability in Somalia, and a potentially contentious election in Kenya,” it says.
The declassified 31-page document came as the Ugandan Cabinet and legislators voiced concerns about the rising political temperatures in Kenya, which have driven up the cost of living along the Northern Corridor due to hesitancy by importers and transporters to use the route.
The Uganda leaders called on their government to put in place a robust contingency plan for factors that could drive up commodity prices, key of these being the Kenyan elections.
Kenya is the main route for imports into Uganda, with oil from international sources delivered to Eldoret, where other Northern Corridor countries Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda and eastern DR Congo pick it for transportation to their markets.
And, taking cue, last week port and rail service providers in Tanzania and Uganda signed a freight forwarding agreement with Roofings Group of Uganda to increase the volume of cargo through the Dar es Salaam port.
The deal involved the Tanzania Ports Authority, the Tanzania Railways Corporation (TRC) and the Uganda Railways Corporation, under the Central Corridor Transit Transport Facilitation Agency (CCTTFA).
About two percent of Uganda’s cargo passes through the Dar port, according to TRC Director General Masanja Kadogosa, who said the new deal would see a 30 percent increase in the shipping business with Uganda.
Uganda Railways Corporation Chief Operating Officer Okachi Abubakar said 70 carriages had been flagged off from Uganda to Dar, and two ships would facilitate transportation of the cargo through Lake Victoria.
These new developments come as Uganda continues to express dissatisfaction with the non-tariff barriers Nairobi has erected in bilateral trade.
Last week, the Ugandan private sector asked Kenya to resolve the outstanding trade disputes involving poultry products, milk, and sugar.
The US report and the unease in Uganda about the disruption by the Kenyan election might dampen the optimism on the Northern Corridor after Rwanda reopened the land borders with Uganda and Burundi, promising traders better returns and facilitating travel.
Experts agree on why the US is rattled.
“Kenya’s August elections will be among the most consequential political events in Africa in 2022. In a turbulent region, Kenya’s stability, economic muscle and diplomatic leadership are more essential than ever before,” argues Michelle D. Gavin, a former US ambassador to Botswana.
“An electoral process that takes a wrong turn could threaten the country’s capacity to continue playing a pivotal regional role going forward.”
Kenya’s, stability and role as a Western ally in a region roiled by conflict have made it a favoured East African headquarters for international firms.
This is not the first time the US has raised such concerns over the upcoming Kenyan polls. with an appeal for the preservation of democracy and inclusion in politically and ethnically fractured societies.
“As we look ahead to 2022, it’s critical that all parties – the government, opposition parties, civil society – work together to ensure safe and stable elections that reflect the will of the Kenyan people,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during his first official visit to Africa in Kenya last year.
His message was delivered amid worsening crises in neighboring Ethiopia and Sudan.
“Even vibrant democracies like Kenya are experiencing these pressures, especially around election time,” Blinken said, alluding to the election set for August 2022. —
Source: Nam News Network