Accra:East African weather experts have reaffirmed their September forecast predicting enhanced rainfall across parts of the region and urged the public to avoid misinformation. This comes despite delays in rain onset experienced in some areas.
According to Kenya News Agency, meteorologists and climatologists from seven countries clarified during an online Journalists-Scientists Dialogue, organized by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), that these delays do not indicate any changes in the seasonal forecast. Experts from Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Somalia, and Djibouti participated in the dialogue.
Jemimah Ongoma of the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) emphasized that the forecast remains unchanged, with expectations of above-average rainfall in most counties, including Kajiado, between October and December. El Niño conditions have been confirmed in the Pacific Ocean, and forecasters are waiting for the onset of short rains in areas yet to experience them.
Public anxiety has increased due to references to a ‘Super El Niño,’ which some misinterpret as predicting sudden and heavy rainfall. Eunice Koech, a climate scientist at ICPAC, highlighted that while international monitoring agencies predict a strong to very strong El Niño, this does not equate to extremely high rainfall in specific areas.
KMD defines the onset of rains as receiving at least 20 millimeters of rainfall within three consecutive days, with no dry spell exceeding seven days afterward. Areas like Kajiado and others were projected to receive short rains from mid-October, continuing into January.
George Omony, a Ugandan Meteorological Officer, mentioned the need for better communication of climate forecasts to the public, explaining that the relationship between El Niño and rainfall patterns is often misunderstood. He noted that the delayed onset of rains could be linked to the Indian Ocean’s slow response to Pacific changes.
Kenya’s seasonal outlook, released on August 26, predicted above-average rainfall in over 40 counties, with a low probability of drought in most areas. The ICPAC regional outlook indicated a 90 percent chance of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and north-eastern Kenya.
Experts encouraged journalists to verify information with meteorological agencies before publication and urged the public to rely on official forecasts. Ongoma stressed the importance of continued collaboration between scientists and the media to enhance public understanding of seasonal forecasts and support timely preparedness.
