Short rains season of October, November to December likely to experience low rainfall
The situation in the drought hit areas of North Eastern, Eastern and South Eastern lowlands of the country is expected to worsen as the Kenya Meteorological Department predicts another season of failed rainfall.
According to the forecast released by the Director of Meteorological Service Dr. David Gikungu, the Short Rains season of October, November to December (OND) most parts of the country are likely to experience depressed rainfall.
“During the season, it is likely that most areas will have a generally poor distribution of rainfall in both time and space,” says Dr. Gikungu and adds, “The start of the rainy season is likely to be delayed across much of the eastern parts of the country even as the rains will be depressed.”
The Weatherman is warning that the country is already experiencing drought conditions, particularly in Arid and Semi-Arid counties, due to inadequate rainfall over the last four seasons. “A fifth consecutive failed rainfall season will be devastating for the millions of people already suffering from the impacts of the drought,” says Dr Gikungu when he released the seasonal forecast.
According to Dr. Gikungu the expected depressed shorts rains of October, November to December season will be driven by cooler than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the western Equatorial Indian Ocean which is adjacent to the East African coastline, coupled with warmer than average SSTs over the eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean which is adjacent to Australia. “This constitutes a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that is unfavorable for enhanced rainfall over most of East Africa,” says Dr. Gikungu.
He notes that the below average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over much of Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, suggesting the presence of La Nina conditions that are set to persist throughout the OND season could further result into below normal rainfall in the country.
According to the Assistant Director in charge of Public Weather Services Mary Kilavi the delayed onset is as a result of the continuing low temperatures in the most parts of the country. “The warmer northern hemisphere coupled by the slower relaxation of the High Pressure from the Southern Hemisphere has seen the continuation of the cold weather season being experienced in the central highlands and around Nairobi,” she said and added, “this could also affect the start to the short rains season.”
Among the impacts expected is reduced agricultural output in the Eastern Sector of the country since the short rains season is the main agricultural season for the region.
According to an Agrometeorologist Cromwell Lukorito, the season portends a “challenging season for the country amidst the food shortage being experienced. He notes that with the depressed rainfall in the Eastern sector of the country will worsen the food situation.
Lukorito further warns that the expected normal to below normal rainfall in the North Rift valley, South Rift Valley, Western Kenya and Nyanza region will have a negative impact on the maize crop that is maturing resulting into rotting on the farm or aflatoxin contamination due to the high moisture at the time of harvesting.
“There is need for policy intervention to aid the farmers in drying their maize crop, the National Cereals and Produce Board could offer drying equipment at a subsidized rate or zero rate, to help avoid wastage at a time when there is food shortage,” says Lukorito who is also a lecturer at the Department of Earth and Climate Science at the University of Nairobi. (KBC)
Source: MY Gov