In the current period, February 2023, corresponding to the short rain harvest season, a slight decrease in the severity of food insecurity is observed across Kenya’s ASAL areas, which presented four counties in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) in the previous season (namely Isiolo, Turkana, Marsabit and Mandera) that improved to IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This is mainly due to the direct impact of the rains on livelihoods in these areas. However, the improvement is expected to be limited in time, and further deterioration is projected from March to June 2023. The provisional alleviation of food insecurity conditions in these areas in particular, however, did not translate into an improvement to the Extremely Critical level (IPC AMN Phase 5) of acute malnutrition in parts of Marsabit (Laisamis) and Turkana South and other areas, like North Turkana, Wajir and North Horr are also projected to reach Extremely Critical levels of acute malnutrition.
In the current period, it is estimated that around 4.4 million people (27% of the ASAL population) are facing high levels of Acute Food Insecurity – IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis) or above, of which about 774,000 people are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). Compared to the same period last year, this represents a 43% increase in population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above, while compared to the previous analysis period (October-December 2022), the prevalence of population in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis) or above is similar – with a reduction of the population in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Yet, in the projected period, March – June 2023, the severity of food insecurity is expected to worsen again: about 5.4 million people (32% of the population analysed) are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC AFI Phase 3 or above), of which 1.2 million people (7%) will likely be in Emergency (IPC AFI Phase 4). This latest projection represents the highest magnitude and severity of acute food insecurity in the ASAL areas in years: urgent action is required to reduce food gaps, protect their livelihoods, and prevent and treat acute malnutrition.
Food insecurity is primarily driven by a combination of shocks, including a fifth successive below-average rainy season, poorly distributed in space and short-lived, resulting in below-average crop production, poor livestock conditions, and higher exposure to livestock disease.
Food commodity prices skyrocketed while the purchasing power of most vulnerable households continued to decrease, with terms of trade at a seasonal low. Seven counties out of the 23 analysed, predominantly characterised by pastoral livelihoods, are the most affected, representing 45% or higher of their total population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above: Samburu (45%), Tana River (45%), Turkana (50%), Garissa (55%), Mandera (55%), Marsabit (55%), Wajir (55%). Climatic and economic shocks were compounded by the conflict witnessed over most parts of the country, particularly in Turkana, Marsabit, Baringo, Laikipia and West Pokot, where human fatalities occurred, in addition to the loss of livelihoods and herds.
Acute malnutrition across the ASAL counties has significantly deteriorated, and such is the trend over the past seasons. Compared to last year during the same period, the nutrition situation is of great concern: Laisamis in Marsabit County and Turkana South was classified in Extremely Critical levels of Acute Malnutrition (IPC AMN Phase 5 – GAM WHZ =30 percent).
Samburu, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Turkana West, Turkana Central, Turkana North, Tiaty Sub-County in Baringo, North Horr and Moyale sub-counties in Marsabit County in a Critical situation (IPC AMN Phase 4 – GAM WHZ 15 to 29.9 percent), while West Pokot, Laikipia, Tana River and Wajir are in Serious phase (IPC AMC Phase 3 – GAM WHZ 10 to 14.9 percent).
Acute food insecurity, primarily due to low milk availability, WASH, high disease burden and suboptimal multisector interventions to address the needs, compounded by insecurity, are amongst the major contributing factors in the worst affected areas.
For the (AMN) projected period of March to May, the situation is expected to deteriorate, with four areas expected to be in IPC AMN Phase 5 (Extremely Critical). The deteriorating nutrition situation is mainly attributed to the worsening food insecurity situation characterised by low milk availability, increasing food prices, unfavourable terms of trade and insufficient water.
Other contributing factors include poor infant and young child feeding practices, high disease burden and sub-optimal coverage of multi-sectoral interventions. Recurrent and multiple shocks hinder recovery from malnutrition. It is estimated that nearly 970,000 children 6-59 months and 142,000 pregnant and lactating women (PLW) will require treatment over the year.
Source: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification